Wednesday, November 15, 2006

The bumi equity

OK I gave Exhibit 1 earlier to demonstrate the world class-ness (less) of our govt and leaders. Unfortunately I'm all fired up now, and will proceed to ...

Exhibit #2

- The bumiputra equity. They have fluctuated yet again! Marvellous! Wonderful! OK, lets forget all the shenanigans of the past (not enough space here), and start from the point when Asli produced its report on bumi equity in the economy. First, the government commissioned Asli to research into what amount this equity was. It came up to about 45% (I am going to round up the figures here for easier discussions). The government made a BIG shout against this, and the call came alllll the way from the top when our PM also criticised them for making such a conclusion. Basically, they were not allowed to come to that conclusion. Bottom line. So amidst the mounting pressures and criticism, in a courageous step to stand by his name, the man who headed that team resigned from his post, citing regret for publishing it, but not regretting his final calculation. And they openly published their methodology and workings. And this man is a man held in high esteem by the local and international banking, finance and monetary community, having served/serving in esteemed positions in organizations such as the IMF. So the government says NOPE, Asli is wrong wrong wrong, and WE are right right right. WE have the proper number. How DARE Asli conclude what they concluded?

OK. So then the people asked...

Q: So what IS this proper number?
A: 18.9%.

Really? After FIFTY YEARS of Independence and UMNO control, you mean to say that our bumiputras equity in the economy is STILL MERELY 18.9%, a barely marginal increase over the time when the NEP's creation was first deemed necessary!? [OK, back to this point later.]

So they said 18.9%, and gave all sorts of stupid reasons why it could not be 45%, and why it is 18.9%. For example, they used the companies' shares' par value. Now any decent economist will tell you that to calculate a company's true value, you calculate how much it is worth today. By the way, par value is, in a very basic nutshell, the amount in capital that the company has, to start up. Now, how can you calculate a company's worth using par value? Let me ask you something. If I asked you how much your house is worth, would you quote the current market price, or the original price you bought it for 10 years ago? [Btw, if anyone wants to sell their house to me at their 10-years-ago-originally-bought-for-price, please contact me, I think I have a great deal for you.]

So after they claimed that it is 18.9%, the public heaved a deep sigh and prepared for the expected protracted smoke and mirrors that was to follow, and that sure enough, followed. We demanded to see the methodology. We will not attack the 18.9% number if it can be justified. Just justify it with the methodology. If it is justifiable, then we can accept it. So after some silence and dilly dally, the Govt says OK, we have the formula. If you want to see we will show. Don't make trouble. Don't make so much noise. So we go, yes babe, we want to see. And they go, yeap, we have the figures. If you want to see, we will show. So then we go, YES HELLO FOR THE 5th TIME, WE WANT TO SEE. And they go, yea yea, SHH hush hush don't stir up sensitive topics, we got the figure, if you ask, we can show.

And this little show went on for a few weeks. Finally, silence all around.

More silence.

Perhaps hoping, as usual, it would be swept under the carpet. Semua-nya ok! Mudah lupa!

Then came another round of reminders..EH WE WANT TO SEE...SHOW LA!

Finally! The results came out. 36.64%.

Ah hah!

Then the people go hey wait a minute...you guys said 30 years ago that the original aim of the NEP is to help the bumis to achieve a 30% equity..once that is done, the NEP will be shelved. Now the equity IS more than 30%!

Silence.. then...today.

"Bumi Equity Now at 18.9%".

All I can derive from the excellent screen play above, are the following thoughts:

1) The moment the 45% figure came out, they instantly browbeated its supporters into oblivion, while promoting their 18.9% figure. Meaning they must already have that figure beforehand. Meaning they already must have the formulas and methodology to derive it. So why the hell did they not publish those numbers until so much later? What stopped them? Did they actually have it or not? There is only 2 explanations for this delay. A) They DID NOT have, they just don't like to see the high equity, and thus lambast the Asli conclusion. B) They want to hide something.

2) Why when they did publish it, were the numbers still not the 18.9% they so vehemently pushed for to stomp on the 45% figure? Is our Govt so incompetent, it cannot even calculate an important statistic like that? That statistic is used to determine national policies...so how can they not, at all times, either have that statistic or be able to produce it in triplequick time? Gosh, how incompetent must they be to get this sort of stuff wrong and keep changing it?

3) It took them alllll these weeks to tweak, remove/add components into their formula so they can work backwards and arrive at that 18.9% figure?

Goodness! After 50 years, how come still so low? Only 5 possibilities.

A) The policy's implementation mechanism sucks
B) Something wrong with methodology, true number is higher
C) Bumis are not capable, thus even with 50 years of crutches, still cannot possess high equity
D) The money all went to a select few
C) Some combination of all this.

You know what is interesting? In a UM study years ago, it was discovered we hit 30% in the early 90s.

If you asked ME, humbly, I would say that the answer is A,B and D. I do not believe the Malays are incapable - I have met, and respect, far too many Malays and their achievements to believe C could be possible. No, the policy is geared in such a way that there is no transparency, only cronies benefit, there is no proper fil down mechanism to ensure the masses benefit, that the 18.9% is a fabricated cover up, and the $ is enriching just a few at the top, while the lower classes continue to expand. Just look at how many super rich bumis there are within a few years of them or their cronies coming to the top. It is only 3 years after Badawi's ascension to the throne, yet his son and son in law, Khairy Jamaluddin and Kamaluddin have gone from nobodies to among the richest in Malaysia. Scomi (Kamaluddin's company) has seen its share value rise exponentially. And Badawi keeps saying to every allegation of nepotism "I don't know", and furthermore, to every wrong doing, he directs the purported perpretrator to prepare for him a report. As if the guy would say YEA MATE, I SCREWED UP, I BRIBED SOMEONE WITH A SHOPPING TOUR OF EUROPE AND THATS HOW I GOT MY CONTRACT. PLEASE PUNISH ME. And he tells Mahathir, your sons got bigger contracts then my sons got. Ahhhhhh....

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